Analysis The numbers behind the result
Portugal's dominance in chance creation seals tight win
Portugal's 1-0 victory was deserved based on their superior chance creation, with 23 total shots (17 inside the box) compared to Wales' mere 5 attempts. Despite the narrow scoreline, the hosts' 61% possession translated into sustained pressure, reflected in their 10 corners to Wales' 2 and 1.28 expected goals (xG) versus Wales' 0.24. Joao Felix's 22nd-minute goal, assisted by Nuno Mendes, proved decisive after Cristiano Ronaldo had a second-half strike ruled out by VAR.
The numbers highlight Portugal's control – they registered 5 shots on target to Wales' solitary effort, while their 11 attempts off target and 7 blocked shots underlined their persistent threat. Wales' limitations in attack were stark, failing to record a single shot from outside the box. The visitors' 39% possession and just 325 accurate passes (versus Portugal's 569) left them reliant on transitions, with Portugal's defensive discipline (0 shots on target conceded from open play) smothering any potential threat.
The key stat: Portugal's 23-5 shot advantage – including a 17-5 edge in the danger zone – demonstrates how their territorial dominance should have yielded a more comfortable margin.