Match Centre

Montenegro deserved their victory on the balance of play, with their 2.99 xG significantly outdoing Latvia's 1.3 – suggesting the 2-1 scoreline could have been wider despite Stefan Savić's 57th-minute red card. The hosts' 55% possession translated into superior chance creation, landing 22 shots (7 on target) to Latvia's 15 (5 on target), with 11 corners underscoring their territorial advantage. Nikola Krstović's opener (70') and Aleksa Maraš's 91st-minute winner came during sustained pressure after Montenegro adapted well to going down to 10 men.

Tactically, Latvia's 5-4-1 struggled to contain Montenegro's width (16 shots inside the box) despite the numerical advantage. Denis Melniks's 72nd-minute equaliser against the run of play (assisted by Andrejs Cigaņiks) briefly levelled the xG battle at 1-1, but Montenegro's 2.99 xG – achieved with 22 shots at 0.14 xG per attempt – shows their shots were consistently higher-quality. The decisive stat: Montenegro generated 11 corners to Latvia's 6, reflecting their ability to pin back Latvia's defence even after Savić's dismissal.