Analysis The numbers behind the result
Spain edge England despite lower xG as clinical finishing proves decisive
England will rue missed opportunities as Spain's clinical edge secured a narrow victory despite the Three Lions posting marginally superior expected goal metrics. The hosts generated 1.5xG (including a saved Kane penalty) to Spain's 1.3xG, with Gordon (36') and Kane (40') capitalising on precise assists from Bellingham and O'Reilly before Spain's substitutes swung the game.
Spain's slightly superior possession (53%) translated to more shots (15 vs 13) and better box penetration (8 vs 7 shots inside the area), but England created higher-quality chances (6 corners to Spain's 3). The decisive factor was Spain's impactful substitutions - Baena Rodríguez (60') and Oyarzabal (74') both scored after coming on, while England's Kane (54') squandered a penalty that would have made it 3-1.
The key stat: Spain converted 20% of their total shots compared to England's 15.4%, proving more ruthless when chances arose despite England's 47% possession yielding more set-piece opportunities.