Analysis The numbers behind the result
Dinamo edge tight affair with late penalty after shot trade-off
Dinamo Zagreb's 1-0 win over Anderlecht slightly flattered the home side on expected goals (1.82 vs 1.18), though their penalty conversion was justified amid a contest where shot quality outweighed quantity. Despite Anderlecht's 55% possession and more shots on target (6 vs 3), Dinamo created higher-value chances — evidenced by their superior xG originating from 8 shots inside the box (vs Anderlecht's 6) and 5 attempts from distance.
The decisive moment came in the 96th minute when Dion Drena Beljo converted a VAR-confirmed penalty, rewarding Dinamo's persistence in a match where defences largely dominated (only 9 of 23 total shots were on target). Anderlecht's superior pass accuracy (515 vs 417) failed to translate into clear-cut opportunities, with their 21 free kicks yielding little threat. Dinamo's 6 corners (vs Anderlecht's 2) hinted at their marginally superior attacking intent, ultimately culminating in Beljo's late winner from the spot.