Analysis The numbers behind the result
Bayern fortunate as Arsenal outperform xG
The 2-2 draw was a fair reflection of the balance of play, though Bayern München can consider themselves fortunate given their higher expected goals (xG) of 2.55 compared to Arsenal’s 1.42. Despite dominating possession (58%), Arsenal struggled to convert their control into high-quality chances, with only 5 shots on target out of 14 total attempts. Bayern, while less dominant in possession (42%), were more clinical, scoring twice from just 5 shots on target and capitalising on a penalty through Harry Kane in the 61st minute.
The turning points came in key moments: Eberechi Eze gave Arsenal an early lead in the 25th minute with a well-worked goal assisted by Martin Ødegaard, but Alphonso Davies equalised for Bayern just 10 minutes later, assisted by Kane. Declan Rice’s 82nd-minute strike, assisted by Viktor Gyökeres, rescued a point for Arsenal after Kane’s penalty had swung momentum Bayern’s way. Bayern’s efficiency in front of goal, particularly from set-pieces and penalties, proved decisive in offsetting Arsenal’s possession dominance.
The decisive stat was Bayern’s superior xG of 2.55, highlighting their ability to create higher-quality chances despite lower possession. Arsenal’s inability to match their possession with equally threatening attacks ultimately cost them the win.