Analysis The numbers behind the result
Benfica clinical on the break; Milan's dominance rendered moot by wastefulness
Benfica's 2–0 victory was thoroughly undeserved on the balance of play. AC Milan dominated possession at 60% and registered 17 shots to Benfica's 11, yet ended with nothing. The underlying metrics tell the real story: Milan's xG of 0.96 against Benfica's 0.64 reveals a side that created the better chances but failed to convert them. Milan's shot accuracy—9 efforts from inside the box against Benfica's 5—underscores the territorial control, but territory without clinical finishing is sterile.
Benfica's two goals arrived at moments of maximum efficiency. Dodi Lukebakio opened the scoring in the 16th minute from a Kaminski assist, capitalizing on a turnover rather than sustained pressure. Kaminski doubled the lead in the 53rd minute, receiving from El Karouani—again, a transitional opportunity. Benfica's strength lay not in dominating the ball but in accuracy when it mattered: 4 shots on target from 11 attempts (36% conversion rate) versus Milan's 4 from 17 (24%). Milan's 10 corner kicks generated nothing; Benfica's solitary corner proved irrelevant.
Milan's downfall was not tactical but clinical. They fashioned genuine opportunities through their 60% possession and superior shot volume, yet registered only 0.96 xG—a damning indictment of either chance quality or finishing. Benfica's defensive discipline—12 fouls to Milan's 14—held firm despite relentless pressure. The single statistic that defines this result: Benfica scored 2 goals from 0.64 xG, while Milan scored 0 from 0.96 xG. Possession without conversion is merely geometry.