Analysis The numbers behind the result
Urawa edge Chiba in tight contest despite lower xG
Urawa's 3-2 victory slightly flattered them on the balance of play, with JEF United Chiba posting a higher xG (1.58 to 1.31) and more total shots (14 to 10). The hosts were more clinical, converting 3 of their 4 shots on target compared to Chiba's 2 from 2, despite attempting fewer shots inside the box (4 vs 7). Possession was evenly split (51%-49%), but Urawa created higher-quality chances from similar territory, earning twice as many corners (6 to 3).
Takuro Kaneko's 19th-minute opener set the tone, with Kenta Nemoto and Shuta Sasa (assisted by Tatsuki Seko) securing the win despite Boniface Nduka and Takumi Tsukui's replies for Chiba. Matheus Sávio's creativity proved pivotal, contributing an assist and helping Urawa overperform their xG by 1.69 goals. The decisive factor was Urawa's shot efficiency – they required just 0.44 xG per goal compared to Chiba's 0.79.