Analysis The numbers behind the result
Brest's xG dominance wasted as Nice steal late win
Stade Brestois 29's 2.57 xG superiority (vs Nice's 0.5) went unrewarded, with clinical finishing and a late penalty miss proving decisive. Despite Brest's 51% possession and 13 total shots (7 on target), Nice converted their limited chances, with Sepe Elye Wahi levelling in the 61' (assisted by Mohamed Amoura) before Sofiane Diop's 83' winner (assisted by Wahi). Brest's Ludovic Ajorque opened the scoring in the 15', but Kenny Lala's 90+10' penalty miss encapsulated their wastefulness.
Nice's defensive organisation (15 fouls, 5 yellow cards) disrupted Brest's rhythm, though their 49% possession and 9 shots (only 2 on target) highlight their reliance on efficiency. Brest's 7 corners to Nice's 3 further underscored their territorial dominance. The key stat: Brest's 2.07 xG overperformance (2.57xG vs 1 goal) compared to Nice's +1.5 overperformance (0.5xG vs 2 goals) tells the story of a game decided by finishing, not chances.