Analysis The numbers behind the result
Timbers punish St. Louis despite xG deficit
Portland Timbers' 3-2 victory flattered them statistically, with St. Louis City generating a higher xG (1.98 vs 1.2) and dominating possession (61%). The hosts' territorial dominance translated into more shots (13 vs 12) and corners (5 vs 4), but Portland were ruthlessly clinical - converting all three big chances through Velde (42', 48') and Da Costa (45+3') in a decisive first-half blitz.
Kristoffer Velde was the difference-maker with two goals, both assisted by David Da Costa (who also scored), exposing St. Louis' high line during transitions. Though Edelman (58') and Navarro (90+1') rallied late, Portland's early efficiency proved decisive - their 1.2 xG yielded 3 goals (250% conversion rate) compared to St. Louis' 2 goals from 1.98 xG (101%).
The key outlier was shot placement - both teams registered 6 shots on target, but Portland put 83% of their total shots on frame (10/12) versus St. Louis' 46% (6/13), highlighting their superior composure in the box.
Match Timeline
Formations
Team Stats
Possession
Expected Goals (xG)
Line-ups
- 39B. Lundt
- 5L. MacNaughton
- 32T. Baumgartl
- 21D. Polvara
- 6C. Wallem
- 8C. Durkin
- 24D. Edelman
- 14T. Totland
- 19C. Holse
- 42D. Downs
- 9Rafael Navarro
- M. Perez
- C. Brunet
- S. Becher
- M. Fall
- F. Fall
- Jeong Sang-Bin
- Riley Lynch
- C. Olivares
- J. Orozco
- 41J. Pantemis
- 12R. Hernández
- 2J. Waterman
- 4K. Miller
- 27J. Fory
- 80J. Ortiz
- 21D. Chará
- 17C. Bassett
- 7A. Lassiter
- 10David Pereira da Costa
- 99K. Velde
- O. Fernandez
- Eric Izoita
- V. Janssen
- E. Miller
- Ian Smith
- H. Sulte
- F. Surman
- J. Caicedo
- A. Aravena

