Analysis The numbers behind the result
Spain's dominance justified by superior xG and shot volume
Spain's 2-1 victory was fully deserved, with their 2.04 xG nearly matching the scoreline while limiting Belgium to just 0.38 xG — a stark contrast in chance quality. Despite Belgium's clinical equaliser through De Ketelaere (41'), Spain's 16 shots (7 on target) to Belgium's 5 (2 on target) reflected their control, with 68% possession translating into 10 shots inside the box. Ruiz's opener (30') and Merino's late winner (88') capped a performance where Spain's 90% pass accuracy and 5 corners underscored their territorial dominance.
Belgium's reliance on transitions was evident, with only Castagne's assist and De Ketelaere's finish (their sole shot on target in open play) troubling Spain. Spain's defensive organisation, led by Cubarsi and Laporte (both booked), restricted Belgium to one corner and just 32% possession. The decisive stat: Spain's 1.66 xG overperformance on Belgium — a margin that accurately reflected their superiority in both build-up and final-third execution.