Analysis The numbers behind the result
San Lorenzo's shot dominance justifies narrow win over Santa Fe
San Lorenzo's 1-0 victory was fully deserved based on the balance of play, with their 1.08 xG outperforming Union Santa Fe's meager 0.19, reflecting the home side's superior chance creation. Though possession was evenly split (54%-46%), San Lorenzo translated their slight edge into far greater threat, outshooting Santa Fe 8-1 in shots on target and 14-6 in total attempts, while forcing seven saves from Santa Fe's goalkeeper.
The decisive moment came in the 64th minute through Rodrigo Auzmendi's goal, capping a performance where San Lorenzo generated 11 shots inside the box to Santa Fe's four. Union Santa Fe's discipline cost them, racking up four yellow cards to San Lorenzo's one, disrupting their rhythm. The visitors' sole shot on target and 21 fouls highlighted their inability to build sustained pressure.
The clearest statistical explanation for the result lies in San Lorenzo's +0.89 xG differential — their 5.7x greater expected goals output was only partially reflected in the scoreline, with Santa Fe's goalkeeper preventing a potential heavier defeat (2.35 goals prevented).