Analysis The numbers behind the result
San Jose's early flurry edges high-xG thriller despite San Diego fightback
San Jose's 3-2 win narrowly reflected the expected goals battle (2.06 xG vs San Diego's 1.77), though their lightning start proved decisive. The Earthquakes scored twice inside 12 minutes through Niko Tsakiris (3') and Preston Judd (12'), capitalizing on early defensive fragility despite Tsakiris missing a penalty at 8'. Ousseni Bouda's 35th-minute strike made it 3-0 before San Diego responded via Alexander Dreyer (42') and a late Bakambu penalty (90+4').
Despite San Diego's 53% possession, both sides created quality chances (11 shots each, 6 on target apiece). San Jose were more clinical in key moments, with Tsakiris providing three assists while playing just 67 minutes. The match turned chaotic late with red cards for CJ dos Santos (80') and Matteo Floriani (90+2'), but San Jose's early efficiency – scoring three goals from just 1.04 xG in the first 35 minutes – ultimately decided it.
The decisive stat: San Jose converted 50% of their first-half big chances while San Diego wasted theirs until late – Bouda's 3-0 goal came from just 0.09 xG.