Analysis The numbers behind the result
River Plate's wastefulness punished by Rosario's defensive resolve
River Plate's 2.04 xG dominance went unrewarded in a match defined by profligacy and a defensive masterclass from Rosario Central, who secured a 1-0 win via Nicolás Otamendi's 27th-minute own goal. Despite mustering 25 shots (6 on target) to Rosario's 12 (3 on target) and holding 66% possession, River failed to convert superiority into goals — their 80% pass accuracy and 10 corners underlining control that lacked incision.
Rosario's victory was built on defensive resilience, with Jeremías Ledesma's 5 saves (-0.78 goals prevented) and a disciplined low block (34% possession, 57% pass accuracy) frustrating River. The hosts' early yellow cards (Freitas 5', Rivero 10', Vera 17') disrupted rhythm, while Rosario's Emanuel Coronel's 83rd-minute red card came too late to influence the outcome. River's 17 shots off target — 68% of their total attempts — encapsulated their wastefulness.
The decisive stat: Rosario Central conceded just 0.25 xG per shot faced (2.04 xG from 25 shots), compared to River's 0.22 xG per shot created (0.57 from 12). This defensive efficiency — and River's inability to elevate xG into clear chances — defined the game.