Analysis The numbers behind the result
Alaves denied win despite dominant xG advantage
Rayo Vallecano’s 1-1 draw with Alaves flattered the hosts, who were outplayed based on the underlying numbers. Alaves’ higher xG (1.92 vs 0.43) and greater shot volume (15 total shots, 10 inside the box) reflected their superiority, yet they were held to a solitary goal. Rayo’s Sergio Camello opened the scoring in the 48th minute, assisted by Jorge de Frutos, but Miguel Díaz levelled for Alaves in the 84th minute to salvage a point.
Alaves’ slight possession edge (52%) translated into a more dangerous attacking display, with five more shots than Rayo and twice as many inside the box. Despite conceding nine corners, they restricted Rayo to just three shots on target. Rayo’s disciplined defending and goalkeeper Augusto Batalla’s two saves proved pivotal in limiting Alaves’ clinical edge. The home side’s lack of creativity was evident in their low xG, with just 0.43 despite their eight total shots.
Ultimately, Alaves’ inability to convert their superior chances into more goals defined the match. Their xG of 1.92, nearly four times higher than Rayo’s, underscores their wasted opportunities in a game they deserved to win.