Analysis The numbers behind the result
Portsmouth defy possession gap with clinical finishing
Portsmouth's 3-1 victory slightly overperformed their 1.32 xG, while Swansea's 1.74 xG suggests they were unfortunate not to take more from the game. Despite dominating possession (64%) and attempting more passes (494 vs 280), Swansea created fewer high-quality chances — their 1.74 xG came from just 3 shots on target, compared to Portsmouth's 5. The hosts were more clinical, converting 3 of their 13 attempts, with Terry Devlin (36', 90+2') and Thomas Waddingham (90+8') providing the decisive blows.
The key tactical divergence was Portsmouth's efficiency in transition, registering 9 shots inside the box to Swansea's 4. Swansea's penalty (85', Zan Vipotnik) provided late hope, but their lack of cutting edge in open play (only 2 non-penalty shots on target) proved costly. Portsmouth's 5 corners matched Swansea's, despite having 28% less possession, underlining their threat from set-pieces. The defining stat: Portsmouth scored from 23% of their shots, while Swansea managed just 11%.