Analysis The numbers behind the result
Red Bulls dominate chance creation despite 34% possession
New York Red Bulls fully deserved their 2-0 win, as the xG disparity (3.39 vs 0.87) reflects their superior chance quality despite having just 34% possession. Miami's 66% ball control failed to translate into dangerous opportunities, managing only 2 shots on target compared to Red Bulls' 6. The hosts' 19 total shots (13 inside the box) highlighted their attacking intent, while Miami's 12 attempts (7 inside box) lacked bite.
The game was effectively settled early by Carlos Henrique Casimiro's 7th-minute own goal, leaving Miami chasing the game. Red Bulls remained clinical, with Emil Forsberg sealing the win in stoppage time assisted by Cameron Harper. Miami's substitutions, including a 56th-minute Lionel Messi change, failed to spark a recovery as their xG remained low throughout.
The key stat: Red Bulls' 13 shots inside the box dwarfed Miami's 7, showing their attacking efficiency despite less possession. Their ability to create high-quality chances decisively won the match.