Analysis The numbers behind the result
Braga's xG dominance undone by Baeza's clinical finish
Nacional's narrow victory flattered them statistically, with Braga's superior expected goals (1.69 vs 0.52) suggesting they should have taken at least a point. The hosts were outshot 20-8 and managed just 29% possession, but Miguel Baeza's 19th-minute strike (assisted by Song Min-kyu) proved decisive — one of just four Nacional shots on target compared to Braga's two, despite the visitors' 71% dominance.
Braga's 12 shots inside the box (versus Nacional's four) and six corners (to four) reflected their territorial control, but Nacional's compact 5-4-1 blocked eight attempts and restricted Braga to only two shots on target. Braga made five second-half substitutions to chase the game, but Nacional's defensive resilience — typified by 18 fouls and two yellow cards — saw them overperform their xG by 0.48, while Braga underperformed theirs by 1.69. The xG gap of 1.17 was the match's defining metric, highlighting Braga's wastefulness in front of goal.