Analysis The numbers behind the result
Mirassol punish Gremio with fewer shots but higher xG
Mirassol deserved their 2-1 victory, outperforming Gremio on expected goals (1.38 vs 0.59) despite having lower possession (45%) and fewer total shots (14 vs 9). Their clinical first-half efficiency decided the game, scoring twice from just 3 shots on target, with Bruno Santos (16') and Edson Carioca (40') converting critical chances created by Igor Formiga and Denilson. Gremio's late consolation from Carlos Vinicius (78') came too late, despite their marginally better pass accuracy (84% vs 81%).
Tactically, Mirassol's compact defense limited Gremio to just 4 shots on target, with goalkeeper Walter making 3 saves (including a -0.79 goals prevented deficit indicating below-average shot-stopping). Gremio's higher possession (55%) yielded only 0.59 xG, reflecting poor chance creation. The decisive stat is Mirassol's superior shot quality: 10 of their 14 attempts came inside the box (71%) compared to Gremio's 5 from 9 (56%), underlining their more incisive attacking play.