Analysis The numbers behind the result
Boca efficiency edges Independiente's wasteful dominance
The result, though narrow, was broadly fair on the balance of play, with Boca Juniors' marginally superior expected goals (1.62 vs 1.56) reflecting their clinical edge. Despite Independiente dominating possession (66%) and outshooting Boca 23 to 10, they were wasteful, with just 5 shots on target and a conversion rate of 0%. Boca, however, made the most of their fewer chances, scoring their sole goal from 4 shots on target.
Independiente's inability to convert their dominance into clear chances was the tactical story. Their 23 total shots yielded only 1.56 xG, highlighting a lack of precision in the final third. Boca, in contrast, were surgical, with Facundo Ezequiel Herrera's 88th-minute goal, assisted by Sebastián Villa, proving decisive. Boca's defence was also resolute, recording 5 goalkeeper saves and limiting Independiente to just 4 corners.
The key stat explaining the outcome is Independiente's shot efficiency. Despite their 23 attempts, they failed to score, underscoring Boca's defensive discipline and clinical finishing.