Analysis The numbers behind the result
Gremio edge xG battle but Fluminense hold firm
The 1-1 draw was a fair reflection of the balance of play, with Gremio's higher xG (0.49 vs 0.10) offset by Fluminense's penalty conversion. Despite having just 44% possession, Gremio created better chances — their six shots (two on target) doubled Fluminense's output, with four coming inside the box versus the visitors' solitary effort.
Fluminense's disciplined defensive shape (89% pass accuracy, five fouls conceded) limited clear-cut opportunities until Hulk's 65th-minute penalty against the run of play. Gremio's persistence paid off when Diego Caito struck late (89'), assisted by J. Cabral — their only shot on target from open play. The hosts' 0.20 goals prevented metric shows their keeper was rarely tested beyond the penalty.
The decisive stat: Gremio's 0.49 xG from just six shots highlights their superior chance quality in a game where Fluminense's sole shot on target was their converted penalty.