Analysis The numbers behind the result
Chapecoense punished as Gremio win despite xG deficit
Gremio's 3-1 victory flattered them on the balance of play, with Chapecoense-sc dominating expected goals (2.81 vs 0.67) and outshooting the hosts 32 to 12. The visitors' profligacy proved decisive, managing just 9 shots on target from 32 attempts despite creating higher-quality chances. Gremio were clinical with 5 shots on target yielding 3 goals, including Gustavo Martins' brace (18', 56') and Cristian Pavon's strike (28').
Chapecoense controlled the game's tempo with 47% possession but failed to convert territorial advantage into goals, with Mauricio Garcez's 15th-minute opener their only reward. Gremio's defensive resilience saw them block 5 shots and benefit from Weverton's 7 saves, while their attack capitalised on transitional moments – Pavon both scored and assisted despite only 12 total team shots.
The key stat: Chapecoense's 2.81 xG versus 1 actual goal highlights their wastefulness, with Gremio outperforming their xG by 2.33 goals in a textbook smash-and-grab.