Analysis The numbers behind the result
Fluminense edge high-chance thriller with late Cano winner
Fluminense deserved their narrow victory, outperforming Palmeiras both in expected goals (2.72 vs 1.68) and total shots (17 vs 15). While possession often failed to translate into chances in this end-to-end contest, Fluminense's ability to create higher-quality opportunities inside the box (13 shots vs Palmeiras' 9) ultimately proved decisive. Both sides showed attacking intent, with Palmeiras' Gustavo Gomez opening the scoring in the 10th minute before Fluminense's Hulk equalized in the 42nd.
The game turned on Fluminense's clinical finishing and late-game composure. After Mauricio restored Palmeiras' lead in the 82nd minute, Fluminense responded immediately through Kevin Serna in the 85th, before Germán Cano struck the winner in stoppage time assisted by Martinelli. Palmeiras could point to their own attacking efficiency (7 shots on target from 15) but struggled defensively in the closing stages, conceding twice in the final 10 minutes.
The key stat was Fluminense's superior xG total (2.72), reflecting their ability to create higher-value chances. While Palmeiras matched them for shots on target (7 vs 6), Fluminense's dominance in the box and late-game ruthlessness made the difference in this tightly-fought encounter.