Analysis The numbers behind the result
Maritimo's superior shot quality trumps Famalicão's possession
Despite dominating 67% possession and attempting 14 shots to Marítimo's 9, Famalicão were undone by a more clinical opponent. Marítimo's 1.61 xG to Famalicão's 0.58 tells the story: they created higher-quality chances despite seeing less of the ball. Famalicão's early lead through van Breemen (8') masked their inefficiency, with Marítimo levelling via Bouzaidi (21') before Boakye's winner (90+4') punished their wastefulness.
The match swung on Marítimo's ability to convert limited opportunities – their 4 shots on target matched Famalicão's total, despite attempting half as many shots overall. Famalicão's 6 blocked shots and 4 off-target efforts highlight their lack of precision in the final third. While Marítimo committed more fouls (16 v 11) and saw two yellow cards (Butzke 42', Julião 68'), their defensive resilience (3 saves to Famalicão's 2) and superior xG per shot (0.18 v 0.04) proved decisive.
The key stat: Marítimo scored twice from just 1.61 xG, outperforming their expected goals by 24%, while Famalicão underperformed theirs by 14% (1 goal from 0.58 xG).