Analysis The numbers behind the result
Independiente clinical despite Estudiantes' xG dominance
Estudiantes L.P. will rue their wastefulness as Independiente claimed a 2-0 victory despite being out-created on expected goals (1.74 to 1.34). The hosts dominated possession (59%) and matched Independiente's shot count (14 each), but only 3 of their efforts hit the target compared to Independiente's 5. Gabriel Avalos' 76th-minute opener, assisted by Santiago Montiel, and Montiel's unassisted strike six minutes later punished Estudiantes' profligacy, compounded by Guido Carrillo's 81st-minute penalty miss.
Independiente's efficiency in front of goal proved decisive — they converted two of their three big chances while Estudiantes squandered theirs, including the penalty. Both sides registered five corners, but Independiente's defensive resilience (six blocked shots to Estudiantes' three) and clinical edge in the final 20 minutes swung the game. The key stat: Estudiantes underperformed their xG by 1.74 goals, with Carrillo's penalty miss alone accounting for a 0.76 xG chance.