Analysis The numbers behind the result
Argentina's late surge masks dominant xG advantage
Argentina deservedly edged this semi-final, with their 2-1 victory reflecting superior shot quality (1.84 xG vs England's 0.53) despite the scoreline briefly flattering England. Lionel Scaloni's side generated nearly three times England's xG, converting just 27% of their 1.84 expected goals through Fernández (85') and Martínez (90+2'). England's clinical first half – Gordon scoring their only shot on target (55') from a 0.12 xG chance – belied their creative struggles, managing just 2 shots on target all game from 36% possession.
The decisive statistical gap came in Argentina's 15 total shots (5 on target) to England's 5 (2 on target), with Messi providing two assists late on as England's defensive shape collapsed. Argentina's territorial dominance (64% possession, 91% passing accuracy vs England's 84%) translated into sustained pressure, reflected in their 6 corners to England's 1. The key number: Argentina's 0.51 xG per shot compared to England's 0.11 – a stark difference in chance quality that ultimately told.