Analysis The numbers behind the result
Atletico Paranaense defy xG to steal three points
Atletico Paranaense's 3-2 win flattered them significantly on the balance of play, with Botafogo's 2.73xG dwarfing their visitors' 0.83. Despite enjoying just 45% possession, Atletico were ruthlessly clinical, scoring three goals from just six shots on target. Joao Cruz and Kevin Viveros (twice) provided the decisive moments, striking in the 11th, 13th and 78th minutes. Botafogo dominated territorially, registering 32 total shots and 13 corners, but only found the net twice through late strikes from Sebastián Rodríguez (85') and Kevin Barria (90+2').
Tactically, Atletico Paranaense's compact 3-5-2 absorbed Botafogo's pressure effectively, restricting clear chances despite the hosts' shot volume. Botafogo's 55% possession and 88% pass accuracy failed to translate into sufficient quality opportunities, with 10 of their shots blocked. Atletico's efficiency in transitional moments proved crucial — two of their three goals stemmed from swift counter-attacks.
The defining statistic was Atletico Paranaense's clinical edge: their goals came from just 0.83xG, showcasing a mastery of low-probability chances that ultimately decided the contest.