Analysis The numbers behind the result
Lazio defy xG with clinical finish amid Bologna wastefulness
Lazio's 1-0 victory defied the expected goals (xG) narrative, with Bologna's 1.70 xG dwarfing Lazio's 0.58, suggesting the hosts were unfortunate to lose. Despite 59% possession and 13 total shots (5 on target), Bologna lacked precision, converting none of their 10 shots inside the box. Lazio's winner came against the run of play, with Boulaye Dia assisting Davide Frattesi's 59th-minute strike – their only shot on target in the second half.
Bologna's territorial dominance (8 corners to Lazio's 6 and 90% pass accuracy) failed to translate into clear chances, while Lazio's defensive resolve (4 saves from Christos Mandas) proved decisive. The key stat was clinical finishing: Lazio scored with their sole big chance (0.58 xG from 10 shots), while Bologna underperformed their xG by 1.70. Frattesi's solitary moment of quality decided a match where defensive organisation trumped attacking intent.