Analysis The numbers behind the result
Argentinos JRS capitalise on Belgrano's red card to edge xG battle
The 1-0 win for Argentinos JRS was a fair reflection of their slight superiority in chance creation (xG: 1.21 vs 0.64), though the game pivoted on Franco Vazquez's 39th-minute red card for Belgrano. Despite dominating possession (65%) and creating higher-quality chances (7 shots inside the box vs 4), Argentinos JRS were only marginally more threatening before the dismissal, with Federico Alvarez's 45+2' goal assisted by Gabriel Florentin separating the sides.
Belgrano, reduced to 10 men, still mustered 10 total shots (7 off target) but lacked precision, with only 2 on target. Argentinos JRS's 91% pass accuracy (629 total passes) allowed them to control the tempo, though their 4 shots on goal and 1.21 xG indicate they were far from ruthless. The key difference: Belgrano's xG dropped by 0.21 after the red card, while their keeper Thiago Cardozo's 3 saves (0.50 goals prevented) kept them in contention.
The decisive stat: Argentinos JRS created 1.96 xG per non-penalty shot on target, underlining their patience in breaking down a stubborn but undermanned defence.