Analysis The numbers behind the result
Bahia edge Sao Paulo in shootout despite lower xG
Bahia's 3-2 win slightly flattered them on xG (1.13 vs 0.89), but their clinical start proved decisive. The hosts scored twice in the first 10 minutes (Rodrigo 6', Erick Pulga 10'), converting 2 of their 4 shots on target during that spell. Sao Paulo's 53% possession generated more shots (14 to 13) and corners (11 to 7), but only 6 were on target despite outshooting Bahia 8-4 from inside the box.
Key moments came in transitions - Marcos Victor's 81st-minute winner (assisted by Erick) was Bahia's only second-half shot on target, while Lucas Moura (43') and D. Bobadilla (45+5') had briefly pulled Sao Paulo level before halftime. Bahia's goalkeeper Ronaldo Strada made 4 saves versus Rafael's 1 for Sao Paulo, reflecting Bahia's superior shot-stopping rather than chance prevention (both teams had -0.73 goals prevented).
The difference: Bahia converted 75% of their shots on target (3/4) compared to Sao Paulo's 33% (2/6) - a decisive finishing gap despite fewer quality chances.
Match Timeline
Formations
Team Stats
Possession
Expected Goals (xG)
Line-ups
- 1Ronaldo Strada
- 99C. Olivera
- 44Marcos Victor
- 33David Duarte
- 3M. Moreno
- 46Luciano Juba
- 6Jean Lucas
- 5Nicolas Acevedo
- 11Rodrigo
- 9A. Veliz
- 16Erick Pulga
- G. Herrera
- R. Gomez
- Ze Guilherme
- Luiz Gustavo
- Everton Ribeiro
- Caio Alexandre
- Erick
- Ademir
- Michel Araujo
- M. Sanabria
- Everaldo
- Ruan Pablo
- 23Rafael
- 28Newton
- 5Robert Arboleda
- 35Sabino
- 32Pedro Lima
- 16D. Bobadilla
- 29Pablo Maia
- 18Wendell
- 10Luciano
- 7Lucas Moura
- 9Jonathan Calleri
- Carlos Coronel
- R. Toloi
- Lucas Ramon
- Luis Osorio
- Cauly
- Danielzinho
- Pedro Ferreira
- Djhordney
- Victor Sa
- Andre Silva
- Ryan Francisco
- G. Santana

