Analysis The numbers behind the result
Bologna dominate xG but Atalanta snatch late win
Despite Bologna's superiority in both possession (58%) and expected goals (1.35 vs Atalanta's 0.16), Atalanta emerged victorious with a 1-0 win. The result was undeserved on balance, as Bologna created 16 total shots (10 inside the box) compared to Atalanta's 6, though both sides managed just 2 and 3 shots on target respectively.
Bologna's dominance in chance creation was evident, with double Atalanta's corners (2 vs 1) and triple the shots inside the box. However, Atalanta's goalkeeper Marco Carnesecchi made 3 crucial saves to keep his side in the game, while Bologna's Łukasz Skorupski was only called into action once. The decisive moment came deep into stoppage time, when Lazar Samardžić converted a Nicholas Zalewski assist to secure all three points.
The key statistic explaining this upset is the difference in xG (1.35 vs 0.16), highlighting Bologna's failure to capitalise on their territorial dominance despite creating the better chances throughout.