Analysis The numbers behind the result
Al-Ittihad defy xG and numerical disadvantage to edge Al-Qadisiyah
Al-Ittihad's 1-0 victory was starkly against the run of play, with Al-Qadisiyah dominating the underlying numbers (2.46 xG vs 0.25) and racking up 26 total shots to Ittihad's mere five. Despite just 34% possession and playing with 10 men from the 47th minute after Dion Lopy's red card, the visitors proved ruthlessly efficient – converting their only shot on target through George Ilenikhena's 45+1st-minute strike, assisted by Steven Bergwijn.
Al-Qadisiyah's profligacy defined the match, with their 66% possession yielding 15 corners and 16 shots inside the box, yet only nine on target. Brendan Rodgers' side also had a Quinones goal disallowed for offside (24'). Ittihad's defensive resilience was exemplified by eight saves from goalkeeper Predrag Rajković, while Al-Qadisiyah keeper Ahmed Al-Kassar faced just two shots all game. The visitors' xG of 0.25 – the second-lowest ever for a winning side in Pro League history – underscores how this result defied statistical logic.
The decisive metric: Al-Ittihad converted 100% of their shots on target (1/1), while Al-Qadisiyah failed to score from nine.