Analysis The numbers behind the result
Cleopatra's clinical edge decisive despite tight xG battle
Ceramica Cleopatra's 3-1 victory slightly flattered their performance, with the xG tally (1.14 vs 1.05) suggesting a tighter contest than the scoreline indicates. Despite Al Ittihad's higher shot volume (13 to 14) and comparable box penetration (7 shots inside the area each), Cleopatra's superior shot quality (7 on target vs 4) and clinical finishing proved decisive. The away side maximised their 61% possession with six corners (double Ittihad's tally) and crisp 81% pass accuracy to create higher-value chances.
The game turned on three rapid interventions: Belhadji's first-half stoppage-time opener (45+5') punctured Ittihad's resistance, Otaka's 64th-minute strike restored the two-goal cushion after Hassan's reply (77'), and Gradisar's late sealer (79') punished stretched defences. Cleopatra's midfield trio of Belhadji, Otaka and Gradisar directly contributed to all three goals, exploiting Ittihad's defensive frailties despite their -0.63 goals prevented metric. The key differentiator was Cleopatra converting 43% of shots on target versus Ittihad's 25% – a textbook case of efficiency trumping industry.